Actual vs. Estimate
Modeled cost vs. ShipHero-billed actual — past 4 weeks. Tells you which rates in the model need updating.
Total modeled
$35.2K
comparable orders only
Total actual
$8.8K
ShipHero billed
Net variance
-$26.5K
-75.1%
Coverage
82%
359 of 438 orders
SKUs to review
21
variance > 15%
Per-SKU variance
Sorted by absolute variance — highest drift first. LTL items (no ShipHero data) at the bottom. "Suggested rate" = median observed actual cost per unit.
| SKU | Sample | Modeled freight | Avg actual | Variance | Suggested rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10ML-EUCALYPTUS | 160 | $5.00 | $18.89 | +$13.89 (278%) | $8.24 | update |
| undrwr-3pk-lg | 12 | $6.00 | $18.53 | +$12.53 (209%) | $8.19 | update |
| R-CONCENT | 20 | $6.00 | $17.91 | +$11.91 (198%) | $9.34 | update |
| Solara-Pro-wooden | 5 | $620.00 | $7.48 | -$612.52 (-99%) | $6.48 | update |
| desk-red | 1 | $35.00 | $4.90 | -$30.11 (-86%) | $4.89 | update |
| Full-red | 2 | $50.00 | $16.30 | -$33.70 (-67%) | $16.30 | update |
| BAMBOO FLOOR MATS | 30 | $10.00 | $15.89 | +$5.89 (59%) | $11.00 | update |
| Clean-kit | 134 | $9.00 | $14.23 | +$5.23 (58%) | $9.70 | update |
| undrwr-1pk-sm | 2 | $6.00 | $2.61 | -$3.39 (-56%) | $2.15 | update |
| undrwr-3pk-xl | 5 | $6.00 | $9.05 | +$3.05 (51%) | $9.20 | update |
| Steamkit-V1 | 25 | $25.00 | $14.44 | -$10.56 (-42%) | $17.43 | update |
| undrwr-3pk-md | 26 | $6.00 | $8.22 | +$2.22 (37%) | $8.19 | update |
| undrwr-3pk-sm | 4 | $6.00 | $8.16 | +$2.16 (36%) | $8.19 | update |
| Pulse-Pro | 182 | $64.00 | $41.16 | -$22.84 (-36%) | $43.09 | update |
| Plungbx-XL | 3 | $28.00 | $19.08 | -$8.93 (-32%) | $18.48 | update |
| PULSE-ELEC | 16 | $15.00 | $19.64 | +$4.64 (31%) | $17.16 | update |
| Steamkit-red1 | 156 | $28.00 | $19.46 | -$8.54 (-30%) | $14.54 | update |
| REPLACEMENT-STEAMER | 99 | $15.00 | $18.12 | +$3.12 (21%) | $13.40 | update |
| undrwr-1pk-xl | 7 | $6.00 | $7.24 | +$1.24 (21%) | $6.51 | update |
| backrest | 90 | $10.00 | $8.18 | -$1.82 (-18%) | $6.70 | update |
| SAUNA-GO | 11 | $35.00 | $41.29 | +$6.29 (18%) | $17.55 | update |
| undrwr-1pk-lg | 9 | $6.00 | $6.78 | +$0.78 (13%) | $6.65 | |
| undrwr-1pk-md | 6 | $7.00 | $6.25 | -$0.75 (-11%) | $6.48 | |
| SAUNA-FAN | 63 | $9.00 | $9.92 | +$0.92 (10%) | $6.72 | |
| Coldtub-v1 | 2 | $17.00 | $16.57 | -$0.43 (-3%) | $16.56 | |
| PULSE-CONTROL-BOX | 9 | $7.00 | $6.92 | -$0.08 (-1%) | $6.81 | |
| Beige-Red1 | 6 | $28.00 | $28.23 | +$0.23 (1%) | $38.67 | |
| Red-wand | 50 | $12.00 | $11.95 | -$0.05 (-0%) | $11.57 | |
| plungebox-pro-dsg | — | $17.00 | — | — | — | |
| Sauna-XL | — | $28.48 | — | — | — | |
| Plungebox-chillerLTL | 1 | $85.00 | $62.83 | no ShipHero data (LTL) | — | |
| Solara-ProLTL | 53 | $616.00 | $8.77 | no ShipHero data (LTL) | — | |
| FORGE-OUTLTL | — | $1,000.00 | — | no ShipHero data (LTL) | — | |
| SOLARA-2PLTL | 5 | $800.00 | $12.21 | no ShipHero data (LTL) | — |
Per-zone variance
Compares modeled cost (zone multiplier × base freight + pick-pack) to ShipHero actuals. Suggested multiplier solves the equation backwards from observed totals.
| Zone | Orders | Current mult. | Modeled | Actual | Variance | Suggested mult. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zone 2 | 102 | 0.70× | $5,996.36 | $1,948.91 | -$4,047.45 (-67%) | 0.35× |
| Zone 3 | 51 | 0.80× | $4,226.19 | $1,200.13 | -$3,026.06 (-72%) | 0.34× |
| Zone 4 | 137 | 0.90× | $12,283.31 | $3,336.54 | -$8,946.77 (-73%) | 0.34× |
| Zone 5 | 132 | 1.00× | $10,535.57 | $3,620.41 | -$6,915.16 (-66%) | 0.49× |
| Zone 6 | 120 | 1.12× | $10,900.73 | $2,968.65 | -$7,932.08 (-73%) | 0.38× |
| Zone 7 | 135 | 1.25× | $8,262.14 | $3,001.02 | -$5,261.12 (-64%) | 0.66× |
| Zone 8 | 375 | 1.40× | $24,480.05 | $9,789.05 | -$14,691.00 (-60%) | 0.77× |
Container costs
Overseas freight + container inbounding. Estimates are $8,500 / $1,100 per container by default; actuals come from ForceGet invoices once Task #6 ships.
| Category | Containers in window | Modeled | Actual | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overseas freight | 0 | $0.00 | — | no actual data yet |
| Container inbounding | 0 | $0.00 | — | no actual data yet |