Actual vs. Estimate
Modeled cost vs. ShipHero-billed actual — past 4 weeks. Tells you which rates in the model need updating.
Total modeled
$12.7K
comparable orders only
Total actual
$3.4K
ShipHero billed
Net variance
-$9.3K
-72.9%
Coverage
71%
161 of 228 orders
SKUs to review
19
variance > 15%
Per-SKU variance
Sorted by absolute variance — highest drift first. LTL items (no ShipHero data) at the bottom. "Suggested rate" = median observed actual cost per unit.
| SKU | Sample | Modeled freight | Avg actual | Variance | Suggested rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10ML-EUCALYPTUS | 156 | $5.00 | $18.29 | +$13.29 (266%) | $13.86 | update |
| BAMBOO FLOOR MATS | 16 | $10.00 | $24.73 | +$14.73 (147%) | $11.56 | update |
| undrwr-3pk-xl | 5 | $6.00 | $14.42 | +$8.42 (140%) | $8.19 | update |
| R-CONCENT | 9 | $6.00 | $11.62 | +$5.62 (94%) | $10.00 | update |
| Coldtub-v1 | 3 | $17.00 | $32.11 | +$15.11 (89%) | $18.86 | update |
| Red-wand | 56 | $12.00 | $20.74 | +$8.74 (73%) | $12.18 | update |
| Clean-kit | 104 | $9.00 | $15.46 | +$6.46 (72%) | $10.00 | update |
| undrwr-3pk-lg | 13 | $6.00 | $9.52 | +$3.52 (59%) | $8.19 | update |
| Full-red | 2 | $50.00 | $20.82 | -$29.18 (-58%) | $23.15 | update |
| undrwr-3pk-md | 18 | $6.00 | $8.83 | +$2.83 (47%) | $8.19 | update |
| desk-red | 1 | $35.00 | $19.00 | -$16.00 (-46%) | $19.00 | update |
| SAUNA-GO | 10 | $35.00 | $20.69 | -$14.31 (-41%) | $16.21 | update |
| undrwr-1pk-lg | 5 | $6.00 | $8.36 | +$2.36 (39%) | $6.29 | update |
| Steamkit-V1 | 54 | $25.00 | $16.64 | -$8.36 (-33%) | $17.20 | update |
| Plungbx-XL | 7 | $28.00 | $18.89 | -$9.11 (-33%) | $0.00 | update |
| Steamkit-red1 | 94 | $28.00 | $19.37 | -$8.64 (-31%) | $17.40 | update |
| backrest | 55 | $10.00 | $12.82 | +$2.82 (28%) | $9.10 | update |
| Pulse-Pro | 117 | $64.00 | $46.73 | -$17.27 (-27%) | $47.81 | update |
| PULSE-ELEC | 3 | $15.00 | $17.96 | +$2.96 (20%) | $19.23 | update |
| undrwr-1pk-xl | 2 | $6.00 | $6.58 | +$0.58 (10%) | $6.58 | |
| SAUNA-FAN | 51 | $9.00 | $9.77 | +$0.77 (9%) | $6.81 | |
| undrwr-3pk-sm | 1 | $6.00 | $6.46 | +$0.46 (8%) | $6.46 | |
| REPLACEMENT-STEAMER | 53 | $15.00 | $13.97 | -$1.03 (-7%) | $12.77 | |
| undrwr-1pk-md | 8 | $7.00 | $6.74 | -$0.26 (-4%) | $6.51 | |
| undrwr-1pk-sm | 1 | $6.00 | $6.12 | +$0.12 (2%) | $6.12 | |
| Beige-Red1 | 8 | $28.00 | $27.75 | -$0.25 (-1%) | $24.70 | |
| PULSE-CONTROL-BOX | 26 | $7.00 | $6.96 | -$0.04 (-1%) | $6.88 | |
| plungebox-pro-dsg | — | $17.00 | — | — | — | |
| Sauna-XL | — | $28.48 | — | — | — | |
| Solara-Pro-wooden | — | $620.00 | — | — | — | |
| Plungebox-chillerLTL | 4 | $85.00 | $19.46 | no ShipHero data (LTL) | — | |
| Solara-ProLTL | 54 | $616.00 | $9.67 | no ShipHero data (LTL) | — | |
| FORGE-OUTLTL | 5 | $1,000.00 | $8.01 | no ShipHero data (LTL) | — | |
| SOLARA-2PLTL | 6 | $800.00 | $10.09 | no ShipHero data (LTL) | — |
Per-zone variance
Compares modeled cost (zone multiplier × base freight + pick-pack) to ShipHero actuals. Suggested multiplier solves the equation backwards from observed totals.
| Zone | Orders | Current mult. | Modeled | Actual | Variance | Suggested mult. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zone 2 | 74 | 0.70× | $7,772.60 | $1,779.38 | -$5,993.22 (-77%) | 0.18× |
| Zone 3 | 33 | 0.80× | $3,205.68 | $698.02 | -$2,507.66 (-78%) | 0.21× |
| Zone 4 | 122 | 0.90× | $12,278.32 | $3,059.59 | -$9,218.73 (-75%) | 0.29× |
| Zone 5 | 149 | 1.00× | $12,552.46 | $4,211.54 | -$8,340.92 (-66%) | 0.45× |
| Zone 6 | 112 | 1.12× | $10,556.87 | $2,231.08 | -$8,325.79 (-79%) | 0.25× |
| Zone 7 | 132 | 1.25× | $12,628.29 | $3,126.09 | -$9,502.20 (-75%) | 0.36× |
| Zone 8 | 329 | 1.40× | $33,273.76 | $7,856.69 | -$25,417.07 (-76%) | 0.36× |
Container costs
Overseas freight + container inbounding. Estimates are $8,500 / $1,100 per container by default; actuals come from ForceGet invoices once Task #6 ships.
| Category | Containers in window | Modeled | Actual | Variance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overseas freight | 0 | $0.00 | — | no actual data yet |
| Container inbounding | 0 | $0.00 | — | no actual data yet |